Watch · Synthetic dollar / stablecoin

Ethena ENA

MC ~$750M–$1.6B USDe supply ~$5–6B Peak annualized rev >$1.2B Fee switch active Q1 2026

Composite49.1 #14 of 25

Buyback yield—

P/S263.1× sector 38.3×

Below 1y peak73% 3.8× to reclaim

Float66% FDV $2.3B

Fwd P/S y3333.4× base case

Moat63 judgement

Innovation78 judgement

Moat 63. USDe distribution and exchange integrations are meaningful, but the delta-neutral basis mechanism is well understood and capacity-constrained. A funded competitor could replicate the trade.

Innovation 78. Synthetic dollar built on a delta-neutral basis trade is one of the cleverest mechanisms in DeFi. The cautionary case: a 2% take rate means the innovation accrues to users, not the token.

Measured from live data, except Moat and Innovation which are hand-set judgements · snapshot 2026-08-23 · full model →

What it does

Ethena issues USDe, a synthetic dollar backed by a delta-neutral basis trade (long spot, short perp) that captures perpetual funding rates. It became one of the fastest-growing dollar-denominated liquidity tokens in DeFi.

Fundamentals

USDe supply ~$5–6B (down from Q4 2025 peak after deleveraging).
Recent $1B FalconX warehouse financing (Aug 2026).
BlackRock integration via Aladdin platform; BUIDL is primary reserve for the white-label product.
Historical peak revenue >$1.2B annualized (Dec 2024).
Current run-rate ~$1–1.3B/yr based on $3.5M daily fees.

Tokenomics — the headwind

Fee switch activated Q1 2026: 10–20% of protocol revenue → sENA (projected 4.5–15% yield).
But: 40.6M ENA foundation unlock August 2026, >$300M in ENA emissions scheduled through 2026.
Insider overhang is the single biggest headwind in the sector.

Catalysts (6–12mo)

Continued fee-switch payouts to sENA.
Expansion of institutional USDe adoption via BlackRock white-label.
Potential recovery of USDe supply if funding rates normalize higher.
Q4 2026 fee-switch expansion is a re-rating trigger.

Risks

Basis trade P&L is cyclical — compressed funding = compressed yield = USDe redemptions.
Concentrated exchange/custody risk.
Massive insider unlocks are the single biggest overhang in the sector.

Watch (buy the washouts). Fundamentally the highest-revenue project on any of these lists, but the tokenomics are a headwind. Ideal way to play: buy unlock-driven washouts, don't chase rallies. Fee-switch expansion is the game-changer if funding rates stay positive.

How it compares to its peers

Stablecoin / CDP	Mkt cap	Revenue/yr	Growth/yr	Bull y3 rev	P/S	Fwd P/S y3	Buyback
Sky (Maker)peer	$1.5B	$224.2M	58%	$499.4M	6.8×	2.6×	4.7%
Ethena	$1.5B	$5.7M	-12%	$5.3M	263.1×	333.4×	—
Liquity V2	$21.3M	$555.7K	-37%	$218.9K	38.3×	90.7×	0.5%

Sector median P/S is 38.3×. Ethena trades at 263.1× — above the median, worth 85% if it re-rated to it. Peer revenue growth runs at a median of -12% a year, with 2 of 3 shrinking — so this multiple sits inside a contracting sector.