Growth · DePIN wireless
Helium HNT
MC ~$31–35M
Jan 2026 network rev $24M
Subscribers 595K+ (pre-Noble)
Hotspots ~114K
Composite65.7 #1 of 25
Buyback yield8.1% $2.7M/yr
P/S12.4× sector 12.4×
Below 1y peak93% 15.0× to reclaim
Float100% FDV $33.9M
Moat60 judgement
Innovation55 judgement
Moat 60. Real deployed hotspot network that would be expensive to rebuild physically. Offset by weak demand-side pull - a supply moat with an unproven customer base is only half a moat.
Innovation 55. The original DePIN wireless network and still the reference design others copy. Innovation is now behind it rather than ahead of it - the interesting question is adoption, which this score does not measure.
Innovation 55. The original DePIN wireless network and still the reference design others copy. Innovation is now behind it rather than ahead of it - the interesting question is adoption, which this score does not measure.
Measured from live data, except Moat and Innovation which are hand-set judgements · snapshot 2026-08-23 · full model →
What it does
Helium is the leading decentralized wireless network — IoT LoRaWAN plus 5G small cells offloading traffic for T-Mobile and AT&T. HNT is burned when data credits are consumed; the retail Helium Mobile MVNO was sold to Noble Mobile (Andrew Yang) to scale distribution.
Fundamentals
- $24M in January 2026 network revenue.
- 595K+ subscribers on the Helium Mobile MVNO pre-Noble sale.
- ~114K hotspots deployed.
- HNT is already deflationary via data-credit burns.
- Next halving August 2027 cuts issuance 50%.
Tokenomics
- Data credit burn is the mechanical value-accrual pipe.
- Historically low valuation — trading at <2× annualized network revenue.
- Halving mechanic is programmatic.
Catalysts (6–12mo)
- Noble Mobile acquisition scaling MVNO distribution without exposing HNT to consumer risk.
- Continued DC burn scaling with subscriber growth.
- Any additional carrier offload partnerships (AT&T, T-Mobile expansions).
Risks
- Noble now controls the go-to-market for the highest-value revenue stream — risk that value accrues to Noble equity rather than HNT holders.
- Growth in DC burn must sustain to keep deflation net-positive.
Buy. Distressed valuation for real infrastructure and a deflationary token. If DC burn scales alongside Noble's expansion, HNT re-rates hard. Downside limited by the dominant DeWi infrastructure moat.
How it compares to its peers
| DePIN | Mkt cap | Revenue/yr | Growth/yr | Bull y3 rev | P/S | Fwd P/S y3 | Buyback |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Filecoinpeer | $612.6M | $2.4M | -16% | $1.3M | 257.5× | 359.9× | 0.4% |
| GEODNET | $104.5M | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Helium | $33.9M | $2.7M | — | — | 12.4× | — | 8.1% |
| Hivemapperpeer | $3.9M | $397.2K | -31% | $1.3M | 9.7× | 19.6× | 10.3% |
Sector median P/S is 12.4×. Helium trades at 12.4× — above the median, worth 0% if it re-rated to it. Peer revenue growth runs at a median of -24% a year, with 2 of 2 shrinking — so this multiple sits inside a contracting sector.