Watch · Perp DEX / L1
Hyperliquid HYPE
MC ~$19.2B
FDV ~$73B
Price ~$76
Annualized fees ~$975M
Revenue ~$732M
Composite47.8 #15 of 25
Buyback yield4.2% $739.2M/yr
P/S23.8× sector 12.6×
Below 1y peak0% 1.0× to reclaim
Float22% FDV $79.2B
Fwd P/S y312.4× base case
Moat84 judgement
Innovation95 judgement
Moat 84. Deepest perp liquidity plus its own L1, so it controls its latency floor rather than inheriting one, and liquidity is reflexive - tighter spreads pull volume, volume tightens spreads. Marked down from 92 because that argument has a hole: Lighter became Robinhood Chain's official perps venue in July 2026, which does not attack the liquidity moat at all - it routes around it by importing mainstream brokerage users who were never going to open a DeFi app. Distribution can bypass a liquidity moat; execution alone cannot. Still the strongest position here, no longer an unassailable one.
Innovation 95. Built a purpose-built L1 to run a fully on-chain central limit order book at near-CEX latency, which the rest of the industry had written off as impossible and routed around with AMMs or off-chain matching. Innovation proven in the P&L, not just the whitepaper.
Innovation 95. Built a purpose-built L1 to run a fully on-chain central limit order book at near-CEX latency, which the rest of the industry had written off as impossible and routed around with AMMs or off-chain matching. Innovation proven in the P&L, not just the whitepaper.
Measured from live data, except Moat and Innovation which are hand-set judgements · snapshot 2026-08-23 · full model →
What it does
Hyperliquid is the dominant on-chain perpetual DEX plus its own L1 (HyperEVM). It runs an orderbook with performance close to centralized exchanges and is capturing meaningful share from CEX perp volume.
Fundamentals
- ~$975M annualized fees / ~$732M revenue.
- 31–44% of on-chain perp volume.
- $172B / 30-day; >$9B OI.
- HyperEVM ecosystem still nascent — optional upside.
Tokenomics
- 97% of trading fees → Assistance Fund → open-market HYPE buy-and-burn ($53–83M/month).
- ~46M HYPE burned by June 2026 (~4.6% of initial supply).
- Team unlocks ongoing monthly through Nov 2029 (~10M HYPE/month).
Catalysts (6–12mo)
- Trump / CFTC-compliant US launch — genuine 2H26 catalyst.
- HyperEVM app-layer growth.
- Spot listings on HyperEVM.
Risks
- FDV/revenue ~100× if you use FDV — not cheap.
- Team unlocks continue monthly through 2029.
- Aster, Lighter, edgeX catching up in fragments of market share.
- Reflexivity — if volumes soften, buyback shrinks fast.
Buy on dips, not chase. Best-in-class fundamentals but you're paying up. Not the "undervalued obscure" pick, but excluding it is malpractice if buying DeFi.
How it compares to its peers
| Perp DEX | Mkt cap | Revenue/yr | Growth/yr | Bull y3 rev | P/S | Fwd P/S y3 | Buyback |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hyperliquid | $17.6B | $739.2M | 38% | $3.0B | 23.8× | 12.4× | 4.2% |
| Asterpeer | $1.7B | — | -28% | — | — | — | — |
| Lighter | $766.8M | $66.2M | -27% | $36.3M | 11.6× | 21.1× | 5.2% |
| dYdXpeer | $98.8M | $7.2M | -44% | $3.7M | 13.7× | 39.1× | 7.3% |
| GMXpeer | $76.2M | $11.8M | -14% | $14.1M | 6.5× | 8.6× | 11.3% |
Sector median P/S is 12.6×. Hyperliquid trades at 23.8× — above the median, worth 47% if it re-rated to it. Peer revenue growth runs at a median of -27% a year, with 4 of 5 shrinking — so this multiple sits inside a contracting sector.