Rank 2 · RWA / on-chain credit
Maple Finance SYRUP
MC ~$300M
FDV ~$241M (fully unlocked)
Price ~$0.26
AUM $4.6B (+81% YoY)
Loans out $1.9B (+123%)
Composite56.4 #7 of 25
Buyback yield1.5% $3.3M/yr
P/S15.5× sector 16.9×
Below 1y peak60% 2.5× to reclaim
Float94% FDV $237.7M
Fwd P/S y34.9× base case
Moat72 judgement
Innovation50 judgement
Moat 72. Institutional credit is a relationship and underwriting business. KYC'd borrower base, loan performance history and counterparty trust take years to build and cannot be forked.
Innovation 50. Institutional on-chain credit executed unusually well, with a rules-based revenue-tiered buyback. Wins on underwriting and distribution, not on novel mechanism.
Innovation 50. Institutional on-chain credit executed unusually well, with a rules-based revenue-tiered buyback. Wins on underwriting and distribution, not on novel mechanism.
Measured from live data, except Moat and Innovation which are hand-set judgements · snapshot 2026-08-23 · full model →
What it does
Maple runs an institutional on-chain credit marketplace: USDC lending pools underwritten to trading firms, market makers, and crypto-native funds. Its permissionless retail arm is syrup.fi, which lets ordinary users deposit into the same institutional credit pools.
Fundamentals
- AUM $4.6B (+81% YoY in H1 2026); loans outstanding $1.9B (+123%).
- TVL ~$2.2–2.8B (10× since start of 2025).
- Annualized fees ~$107M; revenue ~$13–15M ARR (Q2 2026 revenue $2.98M).
- Fastest-growing institutional credit franchise in DeFi over the last 18 months.
Tokenomics
- Fully diluted — no unlock overhang, no insider dump risk left.
- Rules-based buyback approved August 2026 with 99.97% governance consent. Scales with monthly revenue: 10–30% of revenue depending on tier.
- Direct revenue → SYRUP capture; buyback tiers step up automatically as revenue grows.
Catalysts (6–12mo)
- First buyback tranches hitting spot in Sept–Dec 2026.
- syrup.fi $2B TVL target; would move buyback into the >$2M/month bucket (30% of revenue tier).
- Expanding fintech / DeFi integrations.
Risks
- Credit risk — uncollateralized institutional loans mean one large default hurts.
- Crypto-native borrower concentration; correlated failure in a crypto downturn.
Strong Buy. Cleanest fundamentals-to-price setup in the whole RWA sector. Fully unlocked + direct revenue buyback + AUM at ATHs while token trades at ~20–25× annualized revenue. If Maple hits the $2B syrup.fi target, revenue could 2–3× by mid-2027 and the buyback flywheel compresses the multiple aggressively.
How it compares to its peers
| RWA / Credit | Mkt cap | Revenue/yr | Growth/yr | Bull y3 rev | P/S | Fwd P/S y3 | Buyback |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ondopeer | $1.7B | $9.0M | 23% | $10.0M | 193.6× | 128.7× | 0.4% |
| Maple Finance | $223.0M | $14.4M | 74% | $80.1M | 15.5× | 4.9× | 1.5% |
| Centrifuge | $50.9M | $5.4M | 78% | $18.2M | 9.4× | 2.8× | 0.0% |
| Clearpoolpeer | $19.2M | $0 | -24% | $0 | — | — | 0.0% |
| Goldfinchpeer | $3.4M | $186.9K | -50% | $53.9K | 18.3× | 63.5× | — |
Sector median P/S is 16.9×. Maple Finance trades at 15.5× — below the median, worth 9% if it re-rated to it. Peer revenue growth runs at a median of 23% a year, with 2 of 5 shrinking — so this multiple sits inside a growing sector.